Markets don’t turn on narratives, they turn when supply is absorbed. And after IREN’s violent round-trip from momentum darling to derisked “capex/credit trade,” the tape is now doing what it always does after a markdown: it’s trying to build a base.
From a technical lens, this looks less like a clean reversal and more like an early accumulation / re-accumulation attempt. That distinction matters: early bases can either mature into markups or fail and become redistribution. The difference is usually clarified by a small set of price levels where the market is forced to reveal itself.
For IREN right now, those levels are $35 and $49.
1) Where We Are in the Cycle: From Markdown to “Cause Building”
IREN’s prior decline wasn’t subtle, it was a markdown with persistent supply. When that kind of trend breaks, the first rally is rarely “the new bull market.” It’s usually short-covering + value probing, followed by range development as larger hands test whether they can accumulate without chasing price higher.
That’s the phase we’re in now: a range that is doing the work of repair.
- Buyers are attempting to establish a floor.
- Sellers are distributing overhead supply to any eager bid.
- Volatility compresses, and direction becomes conditional.
In Wyckoff’s framework, this resembles Phase B behavior: churn, absorption, repeated tests. Importantly, Phase B is where the market decides whether it’s building a foundation or simply pausing before another leg lower.
2) The Two-Level Framework: $35 as Risk, $49 as Confirmation
$35 = the line of defense
This is the level where the accumulation thesis either holds or breaks.
It’s not enough that price touches $35, what matters is acceptance:
- Bullish at/near $35: dips that are rejected quickly, long lower wicks, fast reclaim, shrinking downside follow-through.
- Bearish below $35: clean break, closes below, failed reclaim attempts, and then price begins to behave as though $35 is resistance.
Institutionally, this is the difference between a spring/shakeout (constructive) and a breakdown (failure). If $35 breaks and price accepts below, the market is telling you supply is not absorbed, the base is not ready, and risk shifts to continuation.
Translation: $35 is where you stop arguing and start managing.
$49 = the bull trigger
This is the level that forces the market to confess whether the overhead supply has been absorbed.
In accumulation, rallies repeatedly fail at the same supply zone until they don’t. When they don’t, it’s usually because:
- weak holders have been cleared,
- sellers have exhausted,
- and incremental demand can now push price into “air.”
The key is not just breaking $49, it’s reclaiming and holding it:
- break above $49
- hold above on a closing basis
- ideally retest $49 as support
- (bonus) improving breadth/volume confirmation
Translation: $49 is confirmation that the base has turned into a platform.
3) Candles as “Auction Diagnostics,” Not Fortune Telling
From a candlestick perspective, the actionable signals here aren’t exotic patterns, they’re location + response.
At support ($35), you’re looking for:
- rejection candles (hammers / long lower shadows)
- failed breakdown attempts (close back inside the range)
- diminishing real bodies on selloffs (loss of urgency)
Near resistance ($49), you’re looking for:
- strong-bodied closes (demand showing willingness to pay up)
- retest behavior (does the prior ceiling become a floor?)
- absence of long upper shadows (less supply swatting rallies)
Candles matter most when they occur at the boundaries of the range, because that’s where the auction turns binary.
4) Scenario Map and Probabilities (Tactical, Not Theological)
Base-building continuation (most likely near-term)
Chop persists while the market works through supply and recalibrates expectations.
- Price oscillates, volatility contracts.
- This is “cause building,” not signal generation.
What changes the probability?
- repeated support holds at $35 strengthen the base
- repeated failures near $49 keep the market capped
Spring / shakeout (bullish if reclaimed)
A fast move below support designed to flush weak hands, followed by a rapid reclaim into the range.
Key rule: a spring must reclaim quickly.
If price breaks $35 and lingers, it’s not a spring, it’s failure.
Markup initiation (bull case)
A reclaim of $49 that holds transforms the range from “repair” to “launchpad.”
This is where investors tend to get more comfortable: confirmation reduces the probability of a trap, even if it costs you entry price.
Breakdown / redistribution (bear case)
Acceptance below $35 turns the range into a continuation structure.
At that point, rallies become suspect and the burden of proof shifts decisively back to bulls.
5) The Institutional Trade Construction: Two Ways to Express the Same View
Aggressive expression (risk-defined)
- Accumulate closer to support behavior
- Use $35 acceptance as invalidation
- Expect chop; do not expect immediate gratification
This is how you trade early accumulation: you’re paid in risk/reward, not in certainty.
Conservative expression (confirmation-based)
- Wait for reclaim/hold above $49
- Buy the retest (if it comes)
- Accept paying higher for reduced failure probability
This is how you trade the transition from “base” to “trend.”
6) The Takeaway
If you want a clean game plan:
- $35 is the risk boundary.
Break and accept below, and the accumulation thesis is wrong for now. - $49 is the confirmation boundary.
Reclaim and hold above, and the market is signaling absorption is real, the base can begin to convert into trend.
Everything between those levels is simply the market doing what it must do after a markdown: repairing. Not glamorous, but essential.
If the tape is going to reward the bull thesis, it will do it the honest way, by proving that sellers can no longer push price through the floor, and that buyers can finally lift price through the ceiling.
That’s the entire game.
Investment Gems 
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