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Continue reading →: Tesla’s Q4 + FY2025 print and what it does to the investment thesisThe headline isn’t “a car company quarter.” It’s a capital allocation quarter. The most important line from this whole update is that Tesla is explicitly telling you 2026 is a “huge investment year” with CapEx expected to be in excess of $20B . And they didn’t describe it vaguely, they…
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Continue reading →: AMD Conviction ReportThis report merges fundamentals with price action in an attempt to be a clear signal at key moments. NFA CES keynote AMD just used the CES keynote to make a simple point: it’s no longer a parts vendor, it’s a platform company for AI at rack scale, client, and edge,…
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Continue reading →: Tesla At ~$1.5T: Is This Just an FSD Coin Flip Or A Portfolio Of Real Options?
The bear case sounds clean: TSLA’s current valuation is “too tied” to unsupervised FSD / Robotaxi, and that outcome is basically a coin flip. If that’s true, then paying a mega-cap, triple-digit forward P/E is just paying for vibes. I’m bullish, but I’ll concede the core tension: at this valuation,…
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Continue reading →: The “500 Robotaxis vs. 3–5 Cars” Debate Is the Wrong Fight – Here’s the Right Way to Underwrite Tesla’s Robotaxi StoryIf you’ve been anywhere near FinTwit lately, you’ve seen some version of this argument: “Musk said there would be 500 robotaxis in Austin by year-end. If reality is 3–5 vehicles, that’s not a rounding error, it’s a categorical failure.” It sounds damning. It’s also the kind of claim that goes…
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Continue reading →: IREN: An Early Accumulation Attempt With Two Levels That Matter ($35 / $49)Markets don’t turn on narratives, they turn when supply is absorbed. And after IREN’s violent round-trip from momentum darling to derisked “capex/credit trade,” the tape is now doing what it always does after a markdown: it’s trying to build a base. From a technical lens, this looks less like a…
Hi Fren,
Pepe Maltese
I used to trade inside the machine. Now I just raid it.
I publish two high-conviction setups daily — one momentum, one turnaround — filtered through tape structure, volume shifts, and misaligned narratives.
Some of these turn into full trades. A few evolve into deeper stories. The rest get cut.
This isn’t education. This is intelligence.
I don’t run ads. I don’t sell dreams. I track price, watch structure, and call bullshit when the story breaks.
Follow the setups. Fade the noise. Stick it to the man.
Let’s connect
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