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Continue reading →: The War Premium Is Being Sold: What The Tape Is Telling UsSince the Iran war began, the market has behaved like it usually does in a realtime stress test: it paid up for protection first, then began to withdraw that payment once the worst-case path didn’t continuously intensify. The clearest message is that the “war hedge” complex (oil, energy equities, even…
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Continue reading →: Cisco: The Stock Is Building “Cause” While Fundamentals Pivot To AI Networking and Campus RefreshIntro Cisco’s most recent quarter reads like more than a routine beat-and-raise cycle. Revenue grew roughly 10% year over year to $15.35B, but the more telling feature was the shape of the growth: product strength drove the upside, and networking was the engine room. At the same time, profitability expanded,…
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Continue reading →: Stagflation First, Disinflation LaterA lot of the market still wants a clean answer to a messy problem. Is this inflation or recession. Higher for longer or cuts. Risk on or risk off. But shocks like this do not usually resolve in such tidy categories. The more coherent path is sequential, not binary. The…
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Continue reading →: The Return of FrictionThe market is asking the wrong question. The debate over whether a war driven oil spike counts as “true inflation” or merly a temporary supply shock is too narrow to be useful. It is academically neat and strategically incomplete. What matters is not the label. What matters is how far…
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Continue reading →: QuantumScape’s Defense Angle: Why a Board Appointment Could Matter More Than It LooksQuantumScape’s recent board appointment may prove more important than the headline suggests. According to the companys March 5 announcement, QuantumScape added Ross Niebergall to its board, an executive with deep ties across the defense industrial base, including senior roles at L3Harris, Raytheon, ThalesRaytheon Systems, and Aerojet Rocketdyne. On its face,…
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Continue reading →: Stablecoins may unbundle money from creditI have been following Circle (CRCL) for a while now, and I have even written a report on the company (free). However, I have come to believe that the main issue is not that folks don’t believe in Circle, is that folks misunderstand stables. The easiest way to misunderstand stablecoins…
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Continue reading →: AI may be the boom, but private credit could be the fuseThe market is mostly analyzing two stories in isolation. One is the AI infrastructure boom: chips, power, campuses, GPU clouds, AI factories, and multi hundred billion-dollar capex plans. The other is the quiet stress beginning to show up in private credit: gated vehicles, semi-liquid funds meting hard redemption limits, widening…



