Investment Gems

Price action’s been trying to shake off the July dump. We got a small bullish gap up, some follow-through, and what looks like a bullish engulfing candle two sessions ago — basically buyers absorbing the last wave of selling. That big green bar after a bunch of indecisive little candles says sentiment’s shifting short term, but in classic candlestick interpretation, it’s not confirmed until we break above that recent spike high.

From a bigger lens, the March–June run was parabolic and blew off into early July, then came the emotional flush. Now panic’s cooled, volume’s back to normal, MACD’s curling up, and RSI’s climbed out of oversold into neutral (~49). Feels like smart money nibbling post-capitulation, but not all-in yet.

Right now the stock’s stuck in a Darvas box between $9.20 and $10.50. Clear $10.50 with 2× average volume and $12 is on deck. Lose $9.20 and you’re staring at $8.00. Fib levels line up with the battle zone — $10.50 is both the box top and the 50% retrace, $9.95 is 61.8%, and that $8.86 78.6% level would be ugly if tested.

Tactically, this is a “wait for confirmation” setup. $10.50+ with juice could light the next leg up. Fail at $9.95 and momentum traders will step back, leaving the door open for another leg down to $9.20 or worse.

Conclusion

Real talk — this thing’s trying to coil, but it’s not yet one of those clean, high-probability breakout setups. On the plus side, the nasty selloff already flushed out weak hands, RSI and MACD are both curling up out of oversold, and price is hanging tight in that band that could be the energy build before a pop. Green days have been pulling slightly more volume than red days, which is a quiet bullish tell.

The problem? Breakout energy isn’t really there yet, volume’s still light compared to what you want in a textbook coil. The last run was parabolic and emotional, which usually means it needs more time to base. And this box is mid-Fib, not at a clean pivot low, so head-fakes are more likely.

Bottom line: this feels more like an early-stage base than a loaded spring. Let it chill in this range another week or two with volume slowly ticking up and the odds of a real breakout improve. If you jump now, you’re front-running it — could work, but you better keep stops tight under $9.95.

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