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Continue reading →: Macro Review: the “Chokepoint” did its jobThe tape screamed tight plumbing and risk-off: This is consistent with our framework: mechanical liquidity constriction (TGA hoarding + QT + bill-heavy issuance) tightens collateral, pushes SOFR higher vs EFFR, nudges SRF usage up, and sells the most liquid stuff first (crypto/mega-duration). It’s pipes, not fundamentals. Where we are in…
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Continue reading →: IREN: MSFT pop fades – watch $56–58 support, $76 breakout lineBig picture: the Microsoft $9.7B/5-yr GPU cloud contract is a real validator, but the tape is still sorting through funding/margin math. Intraday we’re +6–7% around $64–65, well off the $75.7 high printed on the headline. That long upper wick says “sold-the-news / price discovery.” Chart tells: Macro tape: BTC is…
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Continue reading →: IREN × Microsoft: Contract big enough to reset the modelI have been working on a one-pager for IREN’s valuation. My goal is to simplify the metrics used, so that retail investors can have a rough measure for the company that they can keep track of without much trouble. This will also allow me to keep regular updates at investmentgems.net.…
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Continue reading →: PTJ Just Plugged Into My Macro Map: Melt-Up First, Debasement AfterPaul Tudor Jones basically handed us a cheat code for how this tape can play out, and it slots perfectly into the framework I’ve been building here. The vibe right now is late ’99, not because valuations are identical, but because the setup is. Big fiscal (a ~6% deficit), policy…
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Continue reading →: AMD Lands OpenAI 6GW Deal: Platform Validation Now, Revenue From 2026AMD and OpenAI signed a multi-year anchor deal. OpenAI naming AMD a core compute partner for 6 gigawatts of AI infrastructure, starting with MI450 in H2’26, upgrades AMD’s AI story from “credible #2” to “platform supplier with contractual runway.” It doesn’t juice 2025, but it meaningfully raises both the floor…




