For 2018, I am considering the following baseline scenario for Adidas:
- Sales growth around 7% per year;
- Profit margin near 5%;
- Multiples between 25x and 20x earnings.
You can read my full thesis and valuation on the stock here
But the main reason why I am writing is the following: For the first time I am offering the base spreadsheets for an analyzed company. My goal is just to provide basic (but accurate) information for my readers to use in order to test my assumptions and to test their own. Therefore, I am offering my own compilation of data (but not the complete set of subsequent calculations that led to the several assumptions and final valuation). Obviously, I feel comfortable with the data (I took it directly from the 10-K with minor adjustments) but I do not guarantee the reliability of the data presented. For investment decision purposes, I advise you to look at the original data before making any decision. However, if you are starting your research, you can use my spreadsheets for an initial recognition of the company.
I want to help my readers to overcome a problem that I so often have: to have a source of financials with 5 or more years, that is reliable enough and ready to use to start drawing some ideas about the company. I used to get that from Reuters website (not the ready to use part), but I had some ill experiences with bad data that had material effect on the conclusions. I believe this can enrich the readers’ experience since one can just download the data and confront it with the whole article right away.
That said, this is an experiment, you should see as such. If the feedback is good (please feel free to provide your feedback in the commenting section), I’ll do it more often and I may even add more information like cash-flow statements and some ratios.
Adidas Spreadsheet: Includes Income Statement and Balance Sheet from 2009 to 2014, ROE decomposed and Return on Retained Earnings.
Nike Spreadsheet: Includes the Income Statement and Balance sheet.
Note: The links will be online for a limited time.