The Russian Revolution

The plunge in the oil price is starting to make victims. Russia is the first to earn first page notoriety but others will follow. The collapse on the commodity markets is going to make more victims. The 2008 commodities price spike promoted a worldwide expansion of production capacity that is now starting to inundate the market. As always, this situation leads to lower prices. Many countries were relying in higher commodity prices to fuel growth and to pay back debts… I sense problems knocking at the door…


(Photo: Dennis Jarvis)

In the stock market, energy stocks are going to be the first ones to go. BP and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are among the companies with ties to Russia’s oil industry. Both companies are underperforming the S&P500 by more than 30% and 20% (YTD), respectively.

In my opinion, energy related stocks are poised to suffer (there are always exceptions) in 2015. Inventory write-downs and investments write-offs will most likely abound. However, one should remain vigilant to the stock price evolution of energy related companies, if a stock market panic does materialize. Not all companies deserve the punishment of a market panic and in some cases an investor can find deeply undervalued stocks. These are the times to make great deals.


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