As we are approaching the end of the year, it is time to make the balance of the present year and to formulate some outlooks regarding the next one. A couple of days ago, I wrote an article for Seeking Alpha about the market outlook for 2015, you can consult it here. In the article, I defend that next year will be though for emergent countries, especially those heavily dependent on commodities. On the other hand, the US will be leading the world economy and Europe might surprise if the unconventional QE goes forward. However, the EUR will most likely suffer in any case, there will be no real opponent for the USD.
[Picture: Bert Kaufmann]
In the article, I left some doubts about the shale oil industry in the US. However, some analysts have been suggesting that the shale break-even point lies between $80 and $60 which means that only if the oil price keeps plunging will there be a problem (Source: Business Insider). Assuming that the oil price remains above the $60 figure, I think that the US shale industry will survive. We might have a M&A season in the sector, but the industry as a whole has good chances of surviving.
If this positive scenario materializes, I see the US economy creating more jobs and improving the housing market, thus create a virtuous cycle where the US will be seen as a global safe haven for investors. Again, I insist on the idea that the bet in the US economy will bring the best risk/reward outcomes for investors in 2015.